The debate in a small group earlier this week was about how far India is behind China. The quick numbers tossed out varied all the way from 10 to 25 years and more. Figuring out the gap between the two "rising giants of Asia" is in fact an instructive study. For instance, Chinas GDP in 2011 was $6.99 trillion, or nearly four times Indias $1.84 trillion. If the Indian economy were to grow at an annual average of 7.8 per cent (the rate for the past decade), it would take 18 years to get to Chinas current size. If growth were to accelerate to nine per cent, it would still take 15 years. Could India have avoided falling so far behind China? After all, when China began its Four Modernisations in 1978, the two economies were of roughly the same size ($145-148 billion). Even in 1991, when India began its reforms, Chinas economy was only 40 per cent bigger than Indias $268 billion. The answer is that, in many ways, India in 1991 was already two decades and more behind China on key indicators, and it has not closed the gap. 本周初，一小群人争论印度落后中国多少。结果很快出来，落后10年至25年以上。 事实上，弄清两个“正在崛起的亚洲巨人”之间的差距是一项有益的研究。 比如，中国2011年的GDP是6.99万亿美元，或者说是印度1.84万亿美元的4倍。 如果印度经济以年平均7.8%的速度发展(过去10年的速度)，印度需要18年的时间才能达到中国目前的规模。如果发展速度加快到9%，印度仍然需要15年。 印度是否本可以避免落后中国如此多? 毕竟，当中国于1978年开始四个现代化的时候，两个经济体的规模大约相等(1450亿美元至1480亿美元)。 甚至在1991年，当印度开始改革的时候，中国经济只比印度2680亿美元的经济大40%。 答案是，印度1991年就已经在主要的指标上落后中国二十年以上。差距并没有弥合。
